No. 46
August 15, 2002
Technology:
I sure miss the fast pace of innovation in the excitement-filled years
of the "dotcom bubble", when every week saw the announcement
of new Internet products and services, some admittedly wacky, but most
at least offered for free to the end users. Well, the party is over:
technological innovation has become largely incremental and its rate
slowed down to a crawl; free services are shutting down or are trying
to move users to a fee-based model; truly cutting-edge ideas are sparse
and sold at exhorbitant prices... It would be doom and gloom all over,
if not for occasional sign that the Revolution is not over yet. The
very recent release of the Macromedia Flash Communication Server MX
is just such a sign. Strangely enough, it happened without much fanfare,
although when I found out what was hidden under this uninspiring name,
I was immediately electrified by the enormous "disruptive"
(in the most positive sense of this term) potential of this technology.
So what is this Flash Communication Server (Flashcom for short)? It
is a part of a comprehensive development environment that includes two
more essential components: Flash and Dreamweaver, also from Macromedia.
This trio enables building and deploying fairly sophisticated collaborative
applications, including audio- and videoconferencing, online presentations,
discussion boards, etc. Never before have average Web developers, who
are not experienced programmers, been given such a powerful and
relatively inexpensive set of tools for transforming the Web from a
publishing medium into a collaborative space. This transformation
was already underway, but driven mostly by commercial developers of
applications like Webex, Centra, Placeware, eRoom, DocuShare, etc. While
it would be premature to write off these pioneering giants, the lesser
players are unlikely to survive the creative onslaught of thousands
of developers equipped with these new tools, and I predict that even
the leaders will soon face tremendous pressure to slash the prohibitive
prices of their offerings.
The Communication Server costs $499 (for up to 10 simultaneous connections)
or 4,500 for up to 500 simultaneous connections - a pittance in comparison
to the minimum charge of $100/user/month for Webex, for example. Of
course, one still has to take into account the cost of development time
and tools (Flash and Dreamweaver at least, perhaps also ColdFusion and
backend database), but a large selection of pre-built components should
speed up development, and I suspect that pretty soon a library of complete
applications will become available for the less technologically inclined.
So far my experiences with Flashcom have been very positive. It is
easy to install, provides Web-based administration, and the included
sample applications are certainly impressive. In my tests the quality
of audio and video communication provided by these apps was on par with
the best commercial tools. Nevertheless, some important questions remain:
1. How difficult and time consuming is it to develop these kinds
of applications in-house?
2. What is the range of capabilities that can be created with the
tool set? (e.g. is desktop sharing possible?)
3. How well does it scale?
Answers to these questions will determine how disruptive this technology
will end up being.
Sample videoconferencing application:

Conference:
Shrinking
World, Expanding Net
- 2002 Annual Conference of Computer Professionals for Social
Responsibility
- Held October 5, 2002 in Cambridge, MA
- The conference will examine the state of CPSR as a global organization,
and ICTs as a global force. Presentations by Iqbal Quadir, the founder
of GrameenPhone and designers of specific software components will
be moderated by experts on the social implication of technical design.
The meeting will close with a set of break-out groups to better understand
how CPSR members can use their voices, their technical skills, and
their organization to make a difference.
Online
reading:
Converging
Technologies for Improving Human Performance
Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology
and Cognitive Science
(NSF/DOC-sponsored report)
- From the executive summary: "In the early decades of the twenty-first
century, concentrated efforts can unify science based on unity in
nature, thereby advancing the combination of nanotechnology, biotechnology,
information technology, and new humane technologies based in cognitive
science. With proper attention to ethical issues and societal needs,
converging technologies could determine a tremendous improvement in
human abilities, societal outcomes, the nations productivity,
and the quality of life. (...) This report underlines several broad,
long-term implications of converging technologies in key areas of
human activity, including working, learning, aging, group interaction,
and human evolution. If we
make the correct decisions and investments today, many of these visions
could be achieved within twenty years time. Moving forward simultaneously
along many of these paths could achieve a golden age that would be
an epochal turning point in human history."
- For a layman's reading of this report please see the CNET.com article:
"When Brains
Meet Computer Brawn."